The total population will decline over the next decades and is expected to fall from the current 55,860 persons to 52-53,000 towards 2040.

 

By 2040, about 3,000 fewer will be living in Greenland than today if no unexpected changes in fertility, mortality or immigration and immigration flows occur.

 

Table 1 The Population’s age distribution 1987-2040, selected years

 

1987

1997

2007

2017

2027

2037

2040

 

                                                                   persons                                                                  

Total

53,733

55,971

56,648

55,860

54,460

52,760

52,207

0-6

6,986

7,696

6,007

5,527

5,609

5,204

5,097

7-14

6,223

7,748

7,753

6,252

5,969

5,855

5,728

15-17

2,642

2,277

2,845

2,106

2,053

2,017

1,987

18-24

9,096

4,565

5,865

5961

5,136

4,873

4,860

25-59

25,595

29,471

28,438

28,544

25,722

24,695

24,396

60-66

1,584

2,181

3,077

3,850

5,083

3,599

3,611

67+

1,607

2,033

2,663

3,620

4,886

6,517

6,527

 

                                                                   percent                                                                  

0-6

13,0

13,7

10,6

9,9

10,3

9,9

9,8

7-14

11,6

13,8

13,7

11,2

11,0

11,1

11,0

15-17

4,9

4,1

5,0

3,8

3,8

3,8

3,8

18-24

16,9

8,2

10,4

10,7

9,4

9,2

9,3

25-59

47,6

52,7

50,2

51,1

47,2

46,8

46,7

60-66

2,9

3,9

5,4

6,9

9,3

6,8

6,9

67+

3,0

3,6

4,7

6,5

9,0

12,4

12,5

See figures in our Statbank ( http://bank.stat.gl/beeprog )

 

Throughout the projection period, the oldest part of the population (67+) will double. The part in working ages will fall, but still account for almost half of the population.

 

These are the main results of a projection of the Greenlandic population until 2040, based on the population count of January 1st 2017. The projection was conducted at a lower level of ambition than previous, as only the population estimates has been updated for the country projection and all assumptions are unchanged from the 2016 projections.

 

The lower level of ambition is chosen to allow time to rewrite the projection model using Statbank Greenland as datasource for the calculations. Also, the technical calculation methods will be revised for comparability to methods used by Statistics Denmark. For example, the Danish method of fertility calculation was revised in 2014.

 

Finally, regional projections must be changed to take account of the division of Qaasuitsup Municipality, cf. Inatsisart n 30 of November 28th 2016 on structural reform of the municipal sector from 2018. Regional projection results from the previous years can be found in StatBank Greenland at http://bank.stat.gl/beeprogreg

 

Greenland Statistics aim to publish results on October 5th, 2017.

 

Detailed calculation results on gender, 1 year age and place of birth can be